Sunday, December 31, 2017

Labor Line

September 2017___________________________________

Labor line has job news and commentary with a one stop short cut for America's job markets and job related data including the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

This month's job and employment summary data are below. This month's inflation data is below.

The Establishment Job Report and Establishment Job Details for data released September 1, 2017.

American Job Market The Chronicle

Current Job and Employment Data

Jobs
Total Non-Farm Establishment Jobs up 156,000 to 146,730,000
Total Private Jobs up 165,000 to 124,432,000
Total Government Employment down 9,000 to 22,298,000

Employment Note
Civilian Non-Institutional Population up 206,000 to 255,357,000
Civilian Labor Force up 77,000 to 160,571,000
Employed down 74,000 to 153,439,000
Employed Men up 37,000 to 81,310,000
Employed Women down 111,000 to 72,129
Unemployed up 151,000 to 7,132,000
Not in the Labor Force up 128,000 to 94,785,000

Unemployment Rate was up .1 % to 4.4% or 7132/160,571
Labor Force Participation Rate stayed the same at 62.9%, or 160,571/255,357

Prices and inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for all Urban Consumers was up by a monthly average of 1.26 percent for 2016.

The August CPI report for the 12 months ending with July, shows the

CPI for All Items was up 1.7%
CPI for Food and Beverages was up 1.1%
CPI for Housing was up 2.8%
CPI for Apparel was down .4%
CPI for Transportation including gasoline was up 1.2%
CPI for Medical Care was up 2.5%
CPI for Recreation was up 1.3%
CPI for Education was up 2.3%
CPI for Communication was down 6.3%

This Month's Establishment Jobs Press Report

A HO-HUM MONTH

The Bureau of Labor Statistics published its September report for jobs in August. The employed decreased 74 thousand while the unemployed increased 151 thousand. The resulting increase in the labor force of 77 thousand fell well below monthly population growth and so 128 thousand more adults left, or did not enter, the labor force. The increase in the unemployed and decrease in the employed worked together to raise the unemployment rate, up .1 percent to 4.4 percent. The labor force participation rate stayed constant at 62.9 percent for August.

The seasonally adjusted total of establishment employment was up 156 thousand for August. The increase was a total of 95 thousand more private service sector jobs and 70 thousand more jobs in goods production. The 165 thousand private sector jobs total combined with a decrease of 9 thousand government service jobs accounts for the total increase.

All three goods production sub sectors had more jobs for August with a combined increase of 70 thousand jobs, a much bigger increase than usual. Natural resources jobs were up 6 thousand while construction also had a bigger than usual increase of jobs: 28 thousand for August. Manufacturing did well with 36 thousand more jobs, which was 28 thousand new durable goods jobs combined with 8 thousand more non-durable goods jobs. The biggest gains came in motor vehicles and parts manufacturing with 13.7 thousand new jobs, which offset small losses in other transportation equipment. Fabricated metal products did well with 5.2 thousand new jobs; computer and electronic products had 3.9 thousand new jobs. Food processing accounted for 6.6 thousand of the 8 thousand new jobs in non-durable goods.

Government service employment fell a combined 9 thousand seasonally adjusted jobs for August. Federal, state and local governments all lost jobs. The federal government dropped a thousand jobs, mostly from a drop in postal service employment. State government was off 5 thousand jobs; local government was off 3 thousand jobs. State education employment had 2.6 thousand of the state job declines. Local public schools had just 300 new jobs. Private education was up a seasonally adjusted 8.6 thousand jobs, which combined with public education left a net of gain a little over 6 thousand jobs in public and private education. Notice the replacement of private education for public education; this is not the first month of that.

Professional and business services had the biggest increase in service employment for August with 40.4 thousand new jobs. The professional and technical service sub sector picked up 22.4 thousand jobs of the total increase, management of companies added a mere hundred jobs while administration and support services including waste management added a net increase of 17.9 thousand jobs.

Among professional and technical services, computer design and related services did the best as it often does with 8 thousand new jobs. Architecture and engineering services added 4.4 thousand jobs; management and technical consulting added another 3.1 thousand jobs.

Among administrative and support services, employment services had a modest gain of 7 thousand jobs while services to buildings added 6.5 thousand jobs. Business support service jobs were down 1.6 thousand for the month amid a few other small gains.

Health Care had a meager 17 thousand new jobs, a low increase and a poor month for health care employment. Ambulatory care added 11 thousand jobs; hospital employment added another 6.4 thousand jobs; nursing and residential care a small 2.8 thousand jobs. Social assistance had a 3.6 thousand job decline. The August growth rate in health care employment was 1.02 percent, well below recent months and well below the fifteen year trend of 2.34 percent.

Trade, Transportation and Utilities had only 8 thousand new jobs, a tiny number for a sector with 18.7 percent of nationwide jobs. Wholesale added 6.3 thousand jobs while retail added just 8 hundred jobs. Transportation did about as poorly as last month with a net gain of 1.9 thousand jobs. Couriers and messengers added 3.9 thousand jobs that offset losses in modal transportation. Utilities dropped 5 hundred jobs.

Leisure and hospitality had a tiny increase of 4 thousand jobs for August, an unusually small increase after last month's big gain. Arts, entertainment and recreation lost a net 3.4 thousand jobs; a gain of 6 thousand jobs in amusements, gambling and recreation offset losses in performing arts and spectator sports. Accommodations dropped 1.7 thousand jobs, a typical loss, while food services and restaurants picked up 9.2 thousand jobs, a modest monthly increase.

Information services dropped 8 thousand jobs, reversing last month's gains. Publishing, motion picture and sound recording, broadcasting, telecommunications and data processing all lost jobs. Financial activities added a net of 10 thousand jobs that included 2.9 thousand new jobs in finance and insurance while real estate and rental and leasing added another 6.8 thousand jobs. The category, other services, added 16 thousand jobs, an unusually large increase. Non-profit associations had 12.3 thousand of the total increase while personal and laundry services and repair and maintenance services also added a few more jobs.

Establishment employment was up 156 thousand in August at an annual growth rate of 1.28 percent, below last month and below recent months. It is ironic that the best monthly gain in manufacturing employment for a long time comes in a month with unusually low gains across many services; especially health care, education, leisure and hospitality, and retail services. Health care, professional and business services, and leisure and hospitality account for just under 40 percent of establishment jobs, but over the last year these three sectors account for over 60 percent of new jobs. So far the gainers gain enough to offset the losers, especially manufacturing and trade, but there is no guarantees in a ho-hum economy.

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August Details

Non Farm Total +156
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported Non-Farm employment for establishments increased from July by 156 thousand jobs for a(n) August total of 146.730 million. (Note 1 below) An increase of 156 thousand each month for the next 12 months represents an annual growth rate of 1.28%. The annual growth rate from a year ago beginning August2016 was +1.45%; the average annual growth rate from 5 years ago beginning August 2012 was +1.78%; from 15 years ago beginning August 2002 it was .78%. America needs growth around 1.5 percent a year to keep itself employed.

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Sector breakdown for 12 Sectors in 000's of jobs

1. Natural Resources +6
Natural Resources jobs including logging and mining were up 6 thousand from July at 719 thousand jobs in August. An increase of 6 thousand jobs each month for the next 12 months would be a growth rate of +10.10 percent. Natural resource jobs are up 58 thousand for the 12 months just ended. Jobs in the 1990's totaled around 770 thousand. Job growth here will be small compared to America's job needs. This is the smallest of 12 major sectors of the economy with .5 percent of establishment jobs.

2. Construction +28
Construction jobs were up 28 thousand from July with 6.918 million jobs in August. An increase of 28 thousand jobs each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +4.88 percent. Construction jobs are up 214 thousand for the 12 months just ended. The growth rate for the last 5 years is +4.14%. Construction jobs rank 9th among the 12 sectors with 4.7 percent of non-farm employment.

3. Manufacturing +36
Manufacturing jobs were up 36 thousand from July with 12.480 million jobs in August. An increase of 36 thousand jobs each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +3.47 percent. Manufacturing jobs were up for the last 12 months by 138 thousand. The growth rate for the last 5 years is +.85%; for the last 15 years by
-1.29%. In 1994, manufacturing ranked 2nd but now ranks 6th among 12 major sectors in the economy with 8.5 percent of establishment jobs.

4. Trade, Transportation & Utility +8
Trade, both wholesale and retail, transportation and utility employment was up 8 thousand from July at 27.390 million jobs in August. An increase of 8 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +.35 percent. Jobs are up by 108 thousand for the last 12 months. Growth rates for the last 5 years are +1.46 percent. Jobs in these sectors rank first as the biggest sectors with combined employment of 18.7 percent of total establishment employment.

5. Information Services -8
Information Services employment were down 8 thousand from July at 2.711 million jobs in August. A decrease of 8 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of -3.53 percent. (Note 2 below) Jobs are down by 67 thousand for the last 12 months. Information jobs reached 3.7 million at the end of 2000, but started dropping, reaching 3 million by 2004, but now holds in the 2.7 million range. Information Services is a small sector ranking 11th of 12 with 1.9 percent of establishment jobs.

6. Financial Activities +10
Financial Activities jobs were up 10 thousand from July at 8.464 million in August. An increase of 10 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of + 1.42 percent. Jobs are up 149 thousand for the last 12 months. (Note 3 below)This sector also includes real estate as well as real estate lending. Financial Services has been growing slowly with many months of negative growth. The long term growth rates are now at a 5 year growth rate of +1.68 percent, and a 15 year growth rate of +.42 percent. Financial activities rank 8 of 12 with 5.8 percent of establishment jobs.

7. Business & Professional Services +40
Business and Professional Service jobs went up 40 thousand from July to 20.798 million in August. An increase of 40 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +2.31 percent. Jobs are up 602 thousand for the last 12 months. Note 4 The annual growth rate for the last 5 years was 2.93 percent. It ranks as 2nd among the 12 sectors now. It was third in May 1993, when manufacturing was bigger and second rank now with 14.2 percent of establishment employment.

8. Education including public and private +6
Education jobs went up 6 thousand jobs from July at 13.997 million in August. These include public and private education. An increase of 6 thousand jobs each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +.54 percent. Jobs are up 59 thousand for the last 12 months. (note 5) The 15 year growth rate equals +.68 percent, slower than the national average. Education ranks 4th among 12 sectors with 9.6 percent of establishment jobs.

9. Health Care +17
Health care jobs were up 17 thousand from July to 19.535 million in August. An increase of 17 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +1.02 percent. Jobs are up 401 thousand for the last 12 months. (note 6) The current month was below long term trends and less than growth from a year ago when the annual growth rate was +2.10 percent. Health care has been growing at +2.34 percent annual rate for the last 15 years, a rate greater than the national rate. Health care ranks 3rd of 12 with 13.3 percent of establishment jobs.

10. Leisure and hospitality +4
Leisure and hospitality jobs went up 4 thousand from July to 15.996 million in August. An increase of 4 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +.30 percent. Jobs are up 323 thousand for the last 12 months. (note 7) The 5 year growth rate is 2.98%. More than 80 percent of leisure and hospitality are accommodations and restaurants assuring that most of the new jobs are in restaurants. Leisure and hospitality ranks 4th of 12 with 10.9 percent of establishment jobs. It moved up from 7th in the 1990's to 5th in the last few years.

11. Other +16
Other Service jobs, which include repair, maintenance, personal services and non-profit organizations went up 16 thousand from July to 5.783 million jobs in August. An increase of 16 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +3.33 percent. Jobs are up 88 thousand for the last 12 months. (note 8) Other services had +1.26 percent growth for the last 5 years. These sectors rank 10th of 12 with 3.9 percent of total non-farm establishment jobs.

12. Government, excluding education -5
Government service employment was down 5 thousand from July to 11.940 million jobs in August. A decrease of 5 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of -.52 percent. Jobs are up 25 thousand for the last 12 months. (note 9) Government jobs excluding education tend to increase slowly but surely with a 15 year growth rate of +.18 percent. Government, excluding education, ranks 7th of 12 with 8.2 percent of total non-farm establishment jobs.


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Sector Notes___________________________

(1) The total cited above is non-farm establishment employment that counts jobs and not people. If one person has two jobs then two jobs are counted. It excludes agricultural employment and the self employed. Out of a total of people employed agricultural employment typically has about 1.5 percent, the self employed about 6.8 percent, the rest make up wage and salary employment. Jobs and people employed are close to the same, but not identical numbers because jobs are not the same as people employed: some hold two jobs. Remember all these totals are jobs. back

(2) Information Services is part of the new North American Industry Classification System(NAICS). It includes firms or establishments in publishing, motion picture & sound recording, broadcasting, Internet publishing and broadcasting, telecommunications, ISPs, web search portals, data processing, libraries, archives and a few others.back

(3) Financial Activities includes deposit and non-deposit credit firms, most of which are still known as banks, savings and loan and credit unions, but also real estate firms and general and commercial rental and leasing.back

(4) Business and Professional services includes the professional areas such as legal services, architecture, engineering, computing, advertising and supporting services including office services, facilities support, services to buildings, security services, employment agencies and so on.back

(5) Education includes private and public education. Therefore education job totals include public schools and colleges as well as private schools and colleges. back

(6) Health care includes ambulatory care, private hospitals, nursing and residential care, and social services including child care. back

(7) Leisure and hospitality has establishment with arts, entertainment and recreation which has performing arts, spectator sports, gambling, fitness centers and others, which are the leisure part. The hospitality part has accommodations, motels, hotels, RV parks, and full service and fast food restaurants. back

(8) Other is a smorgasbord of repair and maintenance services, especially car repair, personal services and non-profit services of organizations like foundations, social advocacy and civic groups, and business, professional, labor unions, political groups and political parties. back

(9) Government job totals include federal, state, and local government administrative work but without education jobs. back

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Notes

Jobs are not the same as employment because jobs are counted once but one person could have two jobs adding one to employment but two to jobs. Also the employment numbers include agricultural workers, the self employed, unpaid family workers, household workers and those on unpaid leave. Jobs are establishment jobs and non-other. back

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