Sunday, December 31, 2017

Labor Line

July 2017___________________________________

Labor line has job news and commentary with a one stop short cut for America's job markets and job related data including the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

This month's job and employment summary data are below. This month's inflation data is below.

The Establishment Job Report and Establishment Job Details for data released July 7, 2017.

American Job Market The Chronicle

Current Job and Employment Data

Jobs
Total Non-Farm Establishment Jobs up 222,000 to 146,404,000
Total Private Jobs up 187,000 to 124,051,000
Total Government Employment up 35,000 to 22,353,000

Employment Note
Civilian Non-Institutional Population up 190,000 to 254,957,000
Civilian Labor Force up 361,000 to 160,145,000
Employed up 245,000 to 153,168,000
Employed Men stayed the same at 81,290,000
Employed Women up 245,000 to 71,878,000
Unemployed up 116,000 to 6,977,000
Not in the Labor Force down 170,000 to 94,813,000

Unemployment Rate was up .1 % to 4.4% or 6,977/160,145
Labor Force Participation Rate was up .1% to 62.8%, or 160,145/254,957

Prices and inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for all Urban Consumers was up by a monthly average of 1.26 percent for 2016.

The June CPI report for the 12 months ending with May, shows the

CPI for All Items was up 1.9%
CPI for Food and Beverages was up .9%
CPI for Housing was up 3.1%
CPI for Apparel was down .9%
CPI for Transportation including gasoline was up 1.8%
CPI for Medical Care was up 2.6%
CPI for Recreation was up .9%
CPI for Education was up 2.3%
CPI for Communication was down 6.3%

This Month's Establishment Jobs Press Report

BETTER

The Bureau of Labor Statistics published its July report for jobs in June. The labor force recovered after last month's decline with an increase of 361 thousand, adults either working or looking for work. The employed were up 245 thousand, which was also reported as the same increase of working women. Not all of them found jobs as the unemployed increased 116 thousand after last month's decline. The increase in the unemployed dominated the increase in the labor force, which caused an increase in the unemployment rate of .1 percent to 4.4 percent. The labor force participation rate recovered by .1 percent to 62.8 percent.

The seasonally adjusted total of establishment employment was up 222 thousand for June. The increase was a total of 162 thousand more private service sector jobs and 25 thousand more jobs in goods production employment. The 187 thousand private sector jobs total combined with an increase of 35 thousand government service jobs accounts for the total increase.

Goods production had an increase of 25 thousand jobs for June with all three sub-sectors reporting some increase. Natural resources added 8 thousand jobs because of 6.9 thousand new jobs in support activities in mining combined with other small job increases in mining and natural gas. Construction jobs improved a seasonally adjusted 16 thousand for June, a little better than last month. Specialty trade contractors added 18.5 thousand new jobs, which offset small losses in construction of buildings. Manufacturing added a thousand jobs, which was 9 thousand new durable goods jobs combined with a loss of 8 thousand non-durable goods jobs. The biggest gains came in fabricated metal products and machinery.

Government service employment added 35 thousand seasonally adjusted jobs, an unusually large gain. All of the gain was in local government, which also added 35 thousand jobs. The federal government added 4 thousand jobs and state government dropped 4 thousand jobs. The 35 thousand increase in local government includes 13.6 thousand new jobs in local public education. These gains offset a state government drop in education of 4.9 thousand jobs. Private education was down a seasonally adjusted 14.1 thousand jobs, which combined with public education left a net of loss of 5.4 thousand public and private education jobs.

Health Care had the biggest increase in service employment for June, adding 59 thousand jobs with the biggest sub sector gains in ambulatory care, which added 26 thousand jobs; hospital employment added another 11.7 thousand jobs. The social assistance sub sector also had an unusually large increase with 22.6 thousand new jobs, half of it in individual and family services. Nursing and Residential care had small job losses. The June growth rate in health care employment was 3.65 percent, well above the fifteen year trend of 2.36 percent. Health care contributes around 450 thousand jobs a year to the U.S. economy.

Leisure and hospitality added 36 thousand new jobs. Arts, entertainment and recreation had 6.9 thousand of the new jobs for June, accommodations another 300 hundred and food services and restaurants another 29.6 thousand jobs, about typical restaurant growth.

Professional and business services had 35 thousand new jobs for June, a little less than last month. The professional and technical service sub sector picked up 18.8 thousand jobs of the total increase, management of companies adding another 6.2 thousand jobs with administration and support services including waste management adding a net of 9.7 thousand jobs.

Among professional and technical services architectural and engineering did the best, but with a modest gain of only 5.4 thousand new jobs. Computer design and related services had more jobs, 4.9 thousand, but that also is a modest monthly gain. Legal services added 2 thousand jobs. Management of companies added more jobs than usual: 6.2 thousand. Among administrative and support services, temporary help services, added 13.4 thousand jobs, which was offset by small losses in other sub-sectors, especially business support services.

Trade, Transportation and Utilities recovered after last months loss by adding 22 thousand jobs, a modest increase. Wholesale added 10 thousand jobs, larger than usual, while retail added 8.1 thousand jobs, smaller than usual. There was a little help from transportation with a net gain of only 2.4 thousand jobs. Couriers and messengers added 4.2 thousand jobs while trucking actually lost jobs among other small losses in modal transportation. Utilities picked up 1.8 thousand jobs.

Information services dropped another 4 thousand jobs, with small losses for jobs in publishing, motion picture and sound recording, broadcasting except Internet and telecommunications. Financial activities had another good month adding 17 thousand new jobs, more than last month. Real estate had 7.1 thousand of the jobs and rental-leasing services adding 2.3 thousand more jobs for June.

The category, other services, added 11 thousand jobs, almost as good as last month. Non-profit organizations had the most jobs from the three sub sectors with 5.6 thousand new jobs. Personal and laundry services added 5.2 thousand jobs, a larger than average increase; repair and maintenance services added 100 jobs.

The establishment employment was up 222 thousand at an annual growth rate of 1.82 percent in June. The long term growth rate of establishment employment has stayed below 2 percent year after year, but 1.82 month by month would bring good annual job growth. The manufacturing sector continues to lag, but health care employment had an unusually good month suggesting the threat to health care and health care employment remains unaffected by threats of Medicaid cuts. So far the Trump period has not changed macroeconomic policy and job growth continues at the same pace as job growth in the post recession period, now up to eight or nine years. Stay tuned.

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June Details

Non Farm Total +222
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported Non-Farm employment for establishments increased from May by 222 thousand jobs for a(n) June total of 146.404 million. (Note 1 below) An increase of 222 thousand each month for the next 12 months represents an annual growth rate of 1.82%. The annual growth rate from a year ago beginning June 2016 was +1.55%; the average annual growth rate from 5 years ago beginning June 2012 was +1.78%; from 15 years ago beginning June 2002 it was .76%. America needs growth around 1.5 percent a year to keep itself employed.

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Sector breakdown for 12 Sectors in 000's of jobs

1. Natural Resources +8
Natural Resources jobs including logging and mining were up 8 thousand from May at 715 thousand jobs in June. An increase of 8 thousand jobs each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +13.58 percent. Natural resource jobs are up 47 thousand for the 12 months just ended. Jobs in the 1990's totaled around 770 thousand. Job growth here will be small compared to America's job needs. This is the smallest of 12 major sectors of the economy with .5 percent of establishment jobs.

2. Construction +16
Construction jobs were up 16 thousand from May with 6.896 million jobs in June. An increase of 16 thousand jobs each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +2.79 percent. Construction jobs are up 206 thousand for the 12 months just ended. The growth rate for the last 5 years is +4.17%. Construction jobs rank 9th among the 12 sectors with 4.7 percent of non-farm employment.

3. Manufacturing +1
Manufacturing jobs were up 1 thousand from May with 12.396 million jobs in June. An increase of 1 thousand jobs each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +.10 percent. Manufacturing jobs were up for the last 12 months by 49 thousand. The growth rate for the last 5 years is +.75%; for the last 15 years by
-1.39%. In 1994, manufacturing ranked 2nd but now ranks 6th among 12 major sectors in the economy with 8.5 percent of establishment jobs.

4. Trade, Transportation & Utility +22
Trade, both wholesale and retail, transportation and utility employment was up 22 thousand from May at 27,389 million jobs in June. An increase of 22 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +.96 percent. Jobs are up by 180 thousand for the last 12 months. Growth rates for the last 5 years are +1.48 percent. Jobs in these sectors rank first as the biggest sectors with combined employment of 18.7 percent of total establishment employment.

5. Information Services -4
Information Services employment were down 4 thousand from May at 2.719 million jobs in June. A decrease of 4 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of -1.76 percent. (Note 2 below) Jobs are down by 61 thousand for the last 12 months. Information jobs reached 3.7 million at the end of 2000, but started dropping, reaching 3 million by 2004, but now creeps up to the 2.75 million range. Information Services is a small sector ranking 11th of 12 with 1.9 percent of establishment jobs.

6. Financial Activities +17
Financial Activities jobs were up 17 thousand from May at 8.449 million in June. An increase of 17 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of + 2.42 percent. Jobs are up 169 thousand for the last 12 months. (Note 3 below)This sector also includes real estate as well as real estate lending. Financial Services has been growing slowly with many months of negative growth. The long term growth rates are now at a 5 year growth rate of +1.66 percent, and a 15 year growth rate of +.42 percent. Financial activities rank 8 of 12 with 5.8 percent of establishment jobs.

7. Business & Professional Services +35
Business and Professional Service jobs went up 35 thousand from May to 20.705 million in June. An increase of 35 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +2.03 percent. Jobs are up 624 thousand for the last 12 months. Note 4 The annual growth rate for the last 5 years was 2.94 percent. It ranks as 2nd among the 12 sectors now. It was third in May 1993, when manufacturing was bigger and second rank now with 14.1 percent of establishment employment.

8. Education including public and private -5
Education jobs went down 5 thousand jobs from May at 14.008 million in June. These include public and private education. A decrease of 5 thousand jobs each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of -.46 percent. Jobs are up 116 thousand for the last 12 months. (note 5) The 15 year growth rate equals +.70 percent, slower than the national average. Education ranks 4th among 12 sectors with 9.6 percent of establishment jobs.

9. Health Care +59
Health care jobs were up 59 thousand from May to 19.483.6 million in June. An increase of 59 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +3.65 percent. Jobs are up 443 thousand for the last 12 months. (note 6) The current month was above long term trends and more than growth from a year ago when the annual growth rate was +2.33 percent. Health care has been growing at +2.36 percent annual rate for the last 15 years, a rate greater than the national rate. Health care ranks 3rd of 12 with 13.3 percent of establishment jobs.

10. Leisure and hospitality +36
Leisure and hospitality jobs went up 36 thousand from May to 15.924 million in June. An increase of 36 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +2.72 percent. Jobs are up 314 thousand for the last 12 months. (note 7) The 5 year growth rate is 3.04%. More than 80 percent of leisure and hospitality are accommodations and restaurants assuring that most of the new jobs are in restaurants. Leisure and hospitality ranks 4th of 12 with 10.9 percent of establishment jobs. It moved up from 7th in the 1990's to 5th in the last few years.

11. Other +11
Other Service jobs, which include repair, maintenance, personal services and non-profit organizations went up 11 thousand from May to 5.761 million jobs in June. An increase of 11 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +2.30 percent. Jobs are up 78 thousand for the last 12 months. (note 8) Other services had +1.22 percent growth for the last 5 years. These sectors rank 10th of 12 with 3.9 percent of total non-farm establishment jobs.

12. Government, excluding education +35
Government service employment was up 35 thousand from May to 11.960 million jobs in June. An increase of 35 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +2.81 percent. Jobs are up 74 thousand for the last 12 months. (note 9) Government jobs excluding education tend to increase slowly but surely with a 15 year growth rate of +.19 percent. Government, excluding education, ranks 7th of 12 with 8.2 percent of total non-farm establishment jobs.

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Sector Notes___________________________

(1) The total cited above is non-farm establishment employment that counts jobs and not people. If one person has two jobs then two jobs are counted. It excludes agricultural employment and the self employed. Out of a total of people employed agricultural employment typically has about 1.5 percent, the self employed about 6.8 percent, the rest make up wage and salary employment. Jobs and people employed are close to the same, but not identical numbers because jobs are not the same as people employed: some hold two jobs. Remember all these totals are jobs. back

(2) Information Services is part of the new North American Industry Classification System(NAICS). It includes firms or establishments in publishing, motion picture & sound recording, broadcasting, Internet publishing and broadcasting, telecommunications, ISPs, web search portals, data processing, libraries, archives and a few others.back

(3) Financial Activities includes deposit and non-deposit credit firms, most of which are still known as banks, savings and loan and credit unions, but also real estate firms and general and commercial rental and leasing.back

(4) Business and Professional services includes the professional areas such as legal services, architecture, engineering, computing, advertising and supporting services including office services, facilities support, services to buildings, security services, employment agencies and so on.back

(5) Education includes private and public education. Therefore education job totals include public schools and colleges as well as private schools and colleges. back

(6) Health care includes ambulatory care, private hospitals, nursing and residential care, and social services including child care. back

(7) Leisure and hospitality has establishment with arts, entertainment and recreation which has performing arts, spectator sports, gambling, fitness centers and others, which are the leisure part. The hospitality part has accommodations, motels, hotels, RV parks, and full service and fast food restaurants. back

(8) Other is a smorgasbord of repair and maintenance services, especially car repair, personal services and non-profit services of organizations like foundations, social advocacy and civic groups, and business, professional, labor unions, political groups and political parties. back

(9) Government job totals include federal, state, and local government administrative work but without education jobs. back

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Notes

Jobs are not the same as employment because jobs are counted once but one person could have two jobs adding one to employment but two to jobs. Also the employment numbers include agricultural workers, the self employed, unpaid family workers, household workers and those on unpaid leave. Jobs are establishment jobs and non-other. back

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