Sunday, December 31, 2017

Labor Line

November 2017___________________________________

Labor line has job news and commentary with a one stop short cut for America's job markets and job related data including the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

This month's job and employment summary data are below. This month's inflation data is below.

The Establishment Job Report and Establishment Job Details for data released November 3, 2017.

American Job Market The Chronicle

Current Job and Employment Data

Jobs
Total Non-Farm Establishment Jobs up 261,000 to 147,010,000
Total Private Jobs up 252,000 to 124,649,000
Total Government Employment up 9,000 to 22,361,000

Employment Note
Civilian Non-Institutional Population up 204,000 to 255,766,000
Civilian Labor Force down 765,000 to 160,381,000
Employed down 484,000 to 153,861,000
Employed Men down 224,000 to 81,659,000
Employed Women down 259,000 to 72,202
Unemployed down 281,000 to 6,520,000
Not in the Labor Force up 968,000 to 95,385,000

Unemployment Rate was down .1 % to 4.1% or 6,520/160,381
Labor Force Participation Rate was down .4% at 62.7%, or 160,381/255,766

Prices and inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for all Urban Consumers was up by a monthly average of 1.26 percent for 2016.

The October CPI report for the 12 months ending with September, shows the

CPI for All Items was up 2.2%
CPI for Food and Beverages was up 1.2%
CPI for Housing was up 2.8%
CPI for Apparel was down .2%
CPI for Transportation including gasoline was up 4.8%
CPI for Medical Care was up 1.6%
CPI for Recreation was up 1.6%
CPI for Education was up 2.1%
CPI for Communication was down 5.7%

This Month's Establishment Jobs Press Report

HURRICANE JOBS RECOVERY MONTH

The Bureau of Labor Statistics published its November report for jobs in October. The labor force declined by 765 thousand, a combination of a 484 thousand decrease in the employed and decrease of 281 thousand unemployed. In spite of the usual population growth the count of the adult population not in the labor force increased almost a million to 95.4 million. The decrease in the unemployed dominated the decrease in the employed by enough to lower the unemployment rate .1 percent to 4.1 percent. The big increase of those not in the labor force was also enough to decrease the labor force participation rate by .4 percent to 62.7 percent for October, an unusually large decrease for a single month.

The seasonally adjusted total of establishment employment was up 261 thousand for October. The increase was 219 thousand more jobs in the private service sector combined with a 33 thousand increase in jobs from goods production. The total of 252 thousand more private sector jobs combined with an increase of 9 thousand government service jobs accounts for the total increase.

Manufacturing dominated goods production gains for October with 24 thousand more jobs distributed between 19 thousand new durable goods jobs and 5 thousand more jobs in non-durable goods. Among durable goods, computer and electronic products, especially computer and peripheral equipment, and motor vehicles and parts manufacturing did the best adding a combined 8.1 thousand jobs. Among non-durable the chemical industry added 3.6 thousand jobs amid other small changes. Construction added 11 thousand jobs with gains in residential construction and specialty contracting offset by job losses in non-residential construction and heavy and engineering construction. Natural resources lost 2 thousand jobs, mostly in support employment.

Government service employment was up a combined 9 thousand seasonally adjusted jobs for October. Federal, state and local governments all added jobs. In the federal government the Post Office continued another month of modest job gains combined with other federal employment for a total of 5 thousand new federal jobs. State government and local government both picked up a net of 2 thousand new jobs, which were gains in public education offset by losses in other state and local employment jobs, excluding education employment. Combined state and local education was up 4.7 thousand jobs. Private education was up 7.6 thousand jobs, making the private education gains from October a year ago almost 90 thousand jobs. Combined job gains for this October in public and private education total 12.3 thousand.

Leisure and hospitality recovered with 106 thousand new jobs, the largest increase for the month, but not a true gain after last month's hurricane related loss of 111 thousand jobs. Arts, entertainment and recreation added a net 15.6 thousand jobs with the amusements, gambling and recreation sub sector up 15.8 thousand jobs offset by small losses in performing arts and spectator sports. Accommodations added 1.8 thousand jobs, food services added 88.5 thousand jobs, restoring most of the losses from last month.

Professional and business services added 50 thousand jobs, an increase within the normal range. The professional and technical service sub sector picked up 14.2 thousand jobs of the total increase while management of companies was up 3.5 thousand jobs; administration and support services including waste management had a net increase of 32.1 thousand jobs.

Among professional and technical services architecture and engineering services added 3.8 thousand jobs while computer design and related services and management and technical consulting each added 3.7 thousand jobs, all modest gains in these sub sectors. Among administrative and support services, employment services had the biggest gain with 23.8 thousand jobs, 18.3 thousand of that gain coming in temporary help services. Travel arrangement and reservation services and business support services had small job losses to offset the gains.

Health Care had a normal month with 34 thousand new jobs. All health care sub sectors had job gains, although nothing unusual. Ambulatory care added 16.1 thousand jobs, hospital employment added another 2.8 thousand jobs, less than last month. Nursing and residential care added 2.6 thousand jobs and social assistance another 12 thousand jobs, a little above normal for social services. The October growth rate in health care employment was 2.09 percent, more than October a year ago but still below the fifteen year trend of 2.32 percent.

Trade, transportation and utilities had a poor month for jobs with just 6 thousand new jobs, a very low increase for a sector with 27.4 million jobs. Transportation did well with 8.4 thousand new jobs, although not in modal transportation. The gains were 5.7 thousand new jobs for couriers and messengers and 3.1 thousand new jobs for warehousing and storage. Wholesale traded added 5.7 thousand new jobs offset by a loss of 8.3 thousand retail jobs. Utilities held at 553.2 thousand jobs, but no change for October.

Information services dropped a thousand jobs, a third month in a row of job losses. Motion picture and sound recording picked up 3.1 thousand jobs after last month's loss. Telecommunications dropped 5 thousand jobs among other small changes. Financial activities added a net of 5 thousand jobs, but finance and insurance lost 5.8 thousand jobs while real estate and rental and leasing services added 10.9 thousand jobs. The category, other services added 12 thousand jobs, a reversal of last month's loss. Personal and laundry services added 8.6 thousand jobs, an unusually large gain. Repair and maintenance services added another 2.8 thousand jobs, reversing the loss form last month. Non-profit associations picked up 1.1 thousand jobs.

Establishment employment was up 261 thousand in October to 147.010 million jobs. Just as the September jobs report was artificially low due to the hurricane this month's total is artificially high due to recovery of leisure and hospitality employment. Manufacturing did a little better than usual, but other sectors had very typical job gains and losses. I estimate the jobs excluding the leisure and hospitality recovery jobs would be 170 thousand, an amount that is not bad, nor especially good, but tells us little about the next few months.

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October Details

Non Farm Total +261
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported Non-Farm employment for establishments increased from September by 261 thousand jobs for a(n) October total of 147.010 million. (Note 1 below) An increase of 261 thousand each month for the next 12 months represents an annual growth rate of +2.13%. The annual growth rate from a year ago beginning October 2016 was +1.38%; the average annual growth rate from 5 years ago beginning October 2012 was +1.77%; from 15 years ago beginning October 2002 it was .79%. America needs growth around 1.5 percent a year to keep itself employed.

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Sector breakdown for 12 Sectors in 000's of jobs

1. Natural Resources -2
Natural Resources jobs including logging and mining were down 2 thousand from September at 717 thousand jobs in October. A decrease of 2 thousand jobs each month for the next 12 months would be a growth rate of -3.34 percent. Natural resource jobs are up 58 thousand for the 12 months just ended. Jobs in the 1990's totaled around 770 thousand. Job growth here will be small compared to America's job needs. This is the smallest of 12 major sectors of the economy with .5 percent of establishment jobs.

2. Construction +11
Construction jobs were up 11 thousand from September with 6.930 million jobs in October. An increase of 11 thousand jobs each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +1.91 percent. Construction jobs are up 187 thousand for the 12 months just ended. The growth rate for the last 5 years is +4.08%. Construction jobs rank 9th among the 12 sectors with 4.7 percent of non-farm employment.

3. Manufacturing +24
Manufacturing jobs were up 24 thousand from September with 12.481 million jobs in October. An increase of 24 thousand jobs each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +2.31 percent. Manufacturing jobs were up for the last 12 months by 156 thousand. The growth rate for the last 5 years is +.86%; for the last 15 years by -1.24%. In 1994, manufacturing ranked 2nd but now ranks 6th among 12 major sectors in the economy with 8.5 percent of establishment jobs.

4. Trade, Transportation & Utility +6
Trade, both wholesale and retail, transportation and utility employment was up 6 thousand from September at 27.434 million jobs in October. An increase of 6 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +.26 percent. Jobs are up by 103 thousand for the last 12 months. Growth rates for the last 5 years are +1.43 percent. Jobs in these sectors rank first as the biggest sectors with combined employment of 18.7 percent of total establishment employment.

5. Information Services -1
Information Services employment was down 1 thousand from September at 2.716 million jobs in October. A decrease of 1 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of -.44 percent. (Note 2 below) Jobs are down by 64 thousand for the last 12 months. Information jobs reached 3.7 million at the end of 2000, but started dropping, reaching 3 million by 2004, but now holds in the 2.7 million range. Information Services is a small sector ranking 11th of 12 with 1.9 percent of establishment jobs.

6. Financial Activities +5
Financial Activities jobs were up 5 thousand from September at 8.483 million in October. An increase of 5 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of + .71 percent. Jobs are up 153 thousand for the last 12 months. (Note 3 below)This sector also includes real estate as well as real estate lending. Financial Services has been growing slowly with many months of negative growth. The long term growth rates are now at a 5 year growth rate of +1.67 percent, and a 15 year growth rate of +.40 percent. Financial activities rank 8 of 12 with 5.8 percent of establishment jobs.

7. Business & Professional Services +50
Business and Professional Service jobs went up 50 thousand from September to 20.870 million in October. An increase of 50 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +2.88 percent. Jobs are up 536 thousand for the last 12 months. Note 4 The annual growth rate for the last 5 years was 2.91 percent. It ranks as 2nd among the 12 sectors now. It was third in May 1993, when manufacturing was bigger and second rank now with 14.2 percent of establishment employment.

8. Education including public and private +12
Education jobs went up 12 thousand jobs from September at 14.097 million in October. These include public and private education. An increase of 12 thousand jobs each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of+1.05 percent. Jobs are up 139 thousand for the last 12 months. (note 5) The 15 year growth rate equals +.76 percent, slower than the national average. Education ranks 4th among 12 sectors with 9.6 percent of establishment jobs.

9. Health Care +34
Health care jobs were up 34 thousand from September to 19.574 million in October. An increase of 34 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +2.06 percent. Jobs are up 374 thousand for the last 12 months. (note 6) The current month was below long term trends but greater than growth from a year ago when the annual growth rate was +1.95 percent. Health care has been growing at +2.32 percent annual rate for the last 15 years, a rate greater than the national rate. Health care ranks 3rd of 12 with 13.3 percent of establishment jobs.

10. Leisure and hospitality +106
Leisure and hospitality jobs went up 106thousand from September to 15.979 million in October. An increase of 106 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +8.01 percent. Jobs are up 284 thousand for the last 12 months. (note 7) The 5 year growth rate is 2.73%. More than 80 percent of leisure and hospitality are accommodations and restaurants assuring that most of the new jobs are in restaurants. Leisure and hospitality ranks 4th of 12 with 10.9 percent of establishment jobs. It moved up from 7th in the 1990's to 5th in the last few years.

11. Other +12
Other Service jobs, which include repair, maintenance, personal services and non-profit organizations went up 12 thousand from September to 5.785 million jobs in October. An increase of 12 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +2.49 percent. Jobs are up 74 thousand for the last 12 months. (note 8) Other services had +.47 percent growth for the last 5 years. These sectors rank 10th of 12 with 3.9 percent of total non-farm establishment jobs.

12. Government, excluding education +4
Government service employment was up 4 thousand from September to 11.944 million jobs in October. An increase of 4 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +.41 percent. Jobs are up 2 thousand for the last 12 months. (note 9) Government jobs excluding education tend to increase slowly but surely with a 15 year growth rate of +.17 percent. Government, excluding education, ranks 7th of 12 with 8.1 percent of total non-farm establishment jobs.

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Sector Notes___________________________

(1) The total cited above is non-farm establishment employment that counts jobs and not people. If one person has two jobs then two jobs are counted. It excludes agricultural employment and the self employed. Out of a total of people employed agricultural employment typically has about 1.5 percent, the self employed about 6.8 percent, the rest make up wage and salary employment. Jobs and people employed are close to the same, but not identical numbers because jobs are not the same as people employed: some hold two jobs. Remember all these totals are jobs. back

(2) Information Services is part of the new North American Industry Classification System(NAICS). It includes firms or establishments in publishing, motion picture & sound recording, broadcasting, Internet publishing and broadcasting, telecommunications, ISPs, web search portals, data processing, libraries, archives and a few others.back

(3) Financial Activities includes deposit and non-deposit credit firms, most of which are still known as banks, savings and loan and credit unions, but also real estate firms and general and commercial rental and leasing.back

(4) Business and Professional services includes the professional areas such as legal services, architecture, engineering, computing, advertising and supporting services including office services, facilities support, services to buildings, security services, employment agencies and so on.back

(5) Education includes private and public education. Therefore education job totals include public schools and colleges as well as private schools and colleges. back

(6) Health care includes ambulatory care, private hospitals, nursing and residential care, and social services including child care. back

(7) Leisure and hospitality has establishment with arts, entertainment and recreation which has performing arts, spectator sports, gambling, fitness centers and others, which are the leisure part. The hospitality part has accommodations, motels, hotels, RV parks, and full service and fast food restaurants. back

(8) Other is a smorgasbord of repair and maintenance services, especially car repair, personal services and non-profit services of organizations like foundations, social advocacy and civic groups, and business, professional, labor unions, political groups and political parties. back

(9) Government job totals include federal, state, and local government administrative work but without education jobs. back

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Notes

Jobs are not the same as employment because jobs are counted once but one person could have two jobs adding one to employment but two to jobs. Also the employment numbers include agricultural workers, the self employed, unpaid family workers, household workers and those on unpaid leave. Jobs are establishment jobs and non-other. back

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